ATM/MPO 713: Predictability

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ATM/MPO 713: Predictability

Spring Semester 2019

Draft of topics to be covered:

  • History and Overview of Numerical Weather Prediction Systems
  • Lorenz (1963, 1965, 1969, 1982): Predictability and Error Growth
  • Tangent Linear and Adjoint models
  • Singular Vectors
  • Stability and Bifurcations
  • EOFs
  • Ensemble Prediction Methods
  • New Perspectives on Predictability
  • Probabilistic State Estimation
  • Least Squares / Maximum Likelihood /
  • Data Assimilation
    • Optimal Interpolation
    • 3d-Var and 4d-Var
    • Ensemble Kalman Filters
    • Hybrid Filters
    • Non-linear Filters
  • Ensemble Sensitivity
  • Observation Impact
  • Uncertainty Quantification
  • Mesoscale Predictability
  • Extending Predictability out to Subseasonal and Seasonal Time Scales

3 course projects:

  • Lorenz predictability
  • State Estimation
  • Predictability Concepts in Complex Models

No exams

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